SPECIFICITY OF SMALL BUSINESS ADAPTATION TO THE CONDITIONS OF STRUCTURAL UNCERTAINTY OF THE EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT

Abstract

Purpose of the study. This study addresses the scientific contradiction between the objective need of small enterprises for stable functioning and the chronic inability of classical models of strategic adaptation to adequately describe the behavior of small businesses under conditions of structural uncertainty in the external environment. The relevance of the work is driven by the cumulative effect of macroeconomic shocks in recent years, including cost-push inflation, exchange rate volatility, supply chain disruptions, and monetary policy tightening. These factors form not just risks but a fundamentally new type of external environment – an environment with broken cause-and-effect relationships, where past experience ceases to be a reliable predictive tool. The methodological foundation comprises a critical analysis of organizational adaptation theories (R. Duncan, H. Mintzberg) and the stakeholder approach, as well as empirical verification based on open data on inflation dynamics, interest rates, and small business closures in 2022–2025. It is established that classical strategies – from cost minimization to diversification – under conditions of structural uncertainty operate non-linearly and often produce the opposite of the expected effect. A key distinction is identified between «noise» uncertainty (high volatility with preserved structural links) and structural uncertainty (a change in the rules of the game itself), with small businesses being critically vulnerable precisely to the second type. As a result, a classification of adaptation strategies for small enterprises is proposed, differentiated by the degree of structural shift and available resource constraints. It is shown that under conditions of prolonged cost-push inflation, the most viable strategies are not price-based or assortment-based, but configurational strategies – revising the business model by abandoning non-core functions, transitioning to outsourcing, and forming temporary coalitions with direct competitors. The practical significance of the research lies in providing owners and managers of small enterprises with operational tools for diagnosing the type of uncertainty and selecting a realistic, resource-appropriate adaptation trajectory.