The Influence of Migration Processes on the Socio-economic Potential of the Subjects of the Russian Federation, which are Part of the North-Western Federal District

Abstract

Introduction: The paper highlights the problem of disproportionality in migration processes within the Russian Federation on the example of the North-West Federal District (NWFD).Objective: to determine the dynamics of migration growth in the NWFD regions and its impact on the potential of socio-economic development of the regions of this federal district.Methods: the analysis of official statistical data; modelling of losses of the NWFD regions’ economies from migration loss in these regions during the period under consideration. Results: It has been pointed out that 6 of 11 constituent entities of the Russian Federation included in the NWFD experienced migration loss during the period from 2019 to 2023, with the main share of migrants falling on the population of working age, as well as the population younger than working age; the impact of migration loss in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation included in the NWFD on their socio-economic potential was modelled in terms of the decrease in tax revenues from personal income due to migration loss of working-age population in the budgets during the period from 2019 to 2023, as well as the forecast for the first half of the year.Conclusions: between 2019 and 2023 in the majority of constituent entities of the Russian Federation that are part of the NWFD (6 out of 11) there was migration attrition; at the same time, there is a tendency to reduce the rate of migration attrition.As a recommendation, the author suggests improving the methodology of statistical accounting of migration, elaborating a more detailed age structure of the migrating population to improve the effectiveness of the programs to attract labor force to the region, as well as to consider the possibility of developing a network of small towns in the NWFD regions as a measure to counteract unidirectional, centripetal migration in the federal district.